[hidden]:has(#learning-player){display:block!important}#learning-player [data-lesson-panel],#learning-player [data-learning-model],#learning-player [data-visual-frame],#learning-player [data-learning-check],#learning-player [data-model-annotation]{display:block!important}#learning-player [data-learning-actions],#learning-player [data-visual-controls]{display:none!important}Read every step below and try the exercises on paper. Interactive checks and saving require JavaScript.

Evidence · Beginner · About 6 min

Separate evidence from business assumptions

Lesson 2 of 6Step 1 of 5

Show which part of your proposal rests on evidence

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Read the case: Expanding customer support

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Expanding customer support Recommend a support plan that balances service, capacity, and cost.

A six-person customer-support team receives 1,000 requests a week.

Its median first response is 18 hours.
Management forecasts 1,300 weekly requests next quarter; that growth has not happened yet.
Two additional staff would cost $120,000 a year and are estimated to handle 400 additional requests a week after four weeks of training.
Triage software costs $36,000 a year plus $12,000 setup.
A six-week pilot covered 200 routine requests each week: average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes, including rework.
The pilot did not test complex cases or peak demand.
The vendor also offers a three-month trial for $9,000 plus the same setup fee.
The first-year budget is $150,000.
One staff member costs $60,000 a year.
Staff capacity and growth figures are planning estimates, not measured outcomes.

A trial finding and a business forecast do different jobs. The pilot records a reduction in handling time for routine requests. The demand forecast predicts future volume. A recommendation can use both, but should not give them the same evidentiary status.

The connection between a finding and a forecast needs explanation. Saving four minutes on 200 requests releases 800 minutes, or about 13.3 hours, each week in the observed work. That does not establish that the software replaces two staff or improves every type of request.

Inspect the source

Six-week routine-request pilot: 200 requests per week. Average handling time: 12 minutes before, eight minutes during the pilot, including rework. Complex requests and peak demand were not tested.

The result concerns routine requests.

This identifies the volume of the observed routine work; it is not the total workload.

The observed saving was four minutes per request.

Subtracting eight from 12 gives four minutes. Multiplying by 200 gives 800 minutes weekly.

Performance on complex work remains untested.

A wider claim needs an additional reason or test; the routine-work finding does not settle it.

Choose a claim. The highlight shows the part of the record to inspect.

Preserve the measured scope
Identify what was tested, over what period, and which result changed.
Expose the extrapolation
Explain what must remain true for the finding to support a future outcome.
Use the finding constructively
Give the result a role in the decision without pretending it answers every question.

From a measured saving to a bounded inference

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Expanding customer support Recommend a support plan that balances service, capacity, and cost.

A six-person customer-support team receives 1,000 requests a week.

Its median first response is 18 hours.
Management forecasts 1,300 weekly requests next quarter; that growth has not happened yet.
Two additional staff would cost $120,000 a year and are estimated to handle 400 additional requests a week after four weeks of training.
Triage software costs $36,000 a year plus $12,000 setup.
A six-week pilot covered 200 routine requests each week: average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes, including rework.
The pilot did not test complex cases or peak demand.
The vendor also offers a three-month trial for $9,000 plus the same setup fee.
The first-year budget is $150,000.
One staff member costs $60,000 a year.
Staff capacity and growth figures are planning estimates, not measured outcomes.

Observed result
Average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes on 200 routine requests each week, including rework.
It keeps who was measured, what was measured and over what period.
Calculation
The observed difference is 800 minutes a week, or about 13.3 hours.
Four minutes saved on each of 200 requests is 800 minutes a week.
Decision implication
That supports further use or testing for routine work. It does not establish the capacity or quality of the whole support team after rollout.
A limited result still supports a limited decision.

A sound inference explains the bridge between what happened and what you expect next.

Test the reasoning

Read the practice case

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Expanding customer support Recommend a support plan that balances service, capacity, and cost.

A six-person customer-support team receives 1,000 requests a week.

Its median first response is 18 hours.
Management forecasts 1,300 weekly requests next quarter; that growth has not happened yet.
Two additional staff would cost $120,000 a year and are estimated to handle 400 additional requests a week after four weeks of training.
Triage software costs $36,000 a year plus $12,000 setup.
A six-week pilot covered 200 routine requests each week: average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes, including rework.
The pilot did not test complex cases or peak demand.
The vendor also offers a three-month trial for $9,000 plus the same setup fee.
The first-year budget is $150,000.
One staff member costs $60,000 a year.
Staff capacity and growth figures are planning estimates, not measured outcomes.

Quick check · 1 of 2What weekly time saving does the pilot record?

400 hours across the whole team.Four minutes for every one of the team’s 1,000 requests.800 minutes on the 200 routine requests observed each week.

Your turn

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Write a short evidence statement for the finance director. Include the measured result, the weekly saving, and one assumption needed for a broader rollout.

Read the case: Expanding customer support

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Expanding customer support Recommend a support plan that balances service, capacity, and cost.

A six-person customer-support team receives 1,000 requests a week.

Its median first response is 18 hours.
Management forecasts 1,300 weekly requests next quarter; that growth has not happened yet.
Two additional staff would cost $120,000 a year and are estimated to handle 400 additional requests a week after four weeks of training.
Triage software costs $36,000 a year plus $12,000 setup.
A six-week pilot covered 200 routine requests each week: average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes, including rework.
The pilot did not test complex cases or peak demand.
The vendor also offers a three-month trial for $9,000 plus the same setup fee.
The first-year budget is $150,000.
One staff member costs $60,000 a year.
Staff capacity and growth figures are planning estimates, not measured outcomes.

Your response Optional 0 / 2400

You can type or use your keyboard’s microphone to dictate. Your text stays editable. Practice is optional.

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The pilot observed… This amounts to… Extending the result would require…

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Use the timer for a spoken attempt if it helps. Practice without recording, then note what you would improve.

0:45

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Review and continue

Customer-support lead · Finance director

Expanding customer support Recommend a support plan that balances service, capacity, and cost.

Read the practice task and case

Write a short evidence statement for the finance director. Include the measured result, the weekly saving, and one assumption needed for a broader rollout.

A six-person customer-support team receives 1,000 requests a week.

Its median first response is 18 hours.
Management forecasts 1,300 weekly requests next quarter; that growth has not happened yet.
Two additional staff would cost $120,000 a year and are estimated to handle 400 additional requests a week after four weeks of training.
Triage software costs $36,000 a year plus $12,000 setup.
A six-week pilot covered 200 routine requests each week: average handling time fell from 12 to eight minutes, including rework.
The pilot did not test complex cases or peak demand.
The vendor also offers a three-month trial for $9,000 plus the same setup fee.
The first-year budget is $150,000.
One staff member costs $60,000 a year.
Staff capacity and growth figures are planning estimates, not measured outcomes.

Your response

You can return to the practice whenever you want.

One model response

The six-week pilot reduced average handling time by four minutes on 200 routine requests each week. That is 800 minutes, or approximately 13.3 hours, saved weekly on that work. A broader rollout depends on the saving persisting and on how the tool handles work the pilot did not test.

The statement preserves the measure, population, and period.

The response makes a positive use of the finding while distinguishing observation, calculation, and extrapolation.

Review the performance

EvidenceI preserve what was actually measured.
CalculationI use the units and arithmetic correctly.
InferenceI identify a consequential rollout assumption.

Choose one move to improve, revise your response, then try it aloud.

Common mistakes to avoid

Expanding the pilot population without explanation.
Treating a time saving as a proven staff replacement.

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Separate evidence from business assumptions

Show which part of your proposal rests on evidence

Preserve the measured scope

Expose the extrapolation

Use the finding constructively

From a measured saving to a bounded inference

Test the reasoning

Your turn

Review and continue

Your response

One model response

Review the performance

Separate evidence from business assumptions

Show which part of your proposal rests on evidence

Preserve the measured scope

Expose the extrapolation

Use the finding constructively

From a measured saving to a bounded inference

Test the reasoning

Your turn

Review and continue

Your response

One model response

Review the performance