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The SuperDebate · AI & work

Global · A twenty-year forecast

Will AI eliminate more jobs than it creates?

Martin Ford expects broad displacement. Pedro Domingos argues that lower costs, new demand and human adaptability will create more work. Both support continued AI progress.

Video & voting · Monday, October 19

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Martin Ford

Martin Ford

Affirmative / PROMore jobs lost than created
Pedro Domingos

Pedro Domingos

Negative / CONNew work can offset job losses

Recorded October 12, 2026

John Connor, moderator

Free to watch at release

The resolution · Global

“Over the next 20 years, AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates.”

Is this time different?

Earlier waves of automation changed work and created new occupations. Martin questions whether that pattern holds when machines compete with human cognition. Pedro questions both that prediction and the speed of the technological change it requires.

Martin Ford’s argument

AI can break the historical pattern

  • A different kind of machine

    Martin argues that AI competes with the broad cognitive abilities that have helped people find new work after earlier waves of automation. It need not replace every job to cause substantial displacement.

  • Today’s limits can change

    He acknowledges that widespread job losses have not yet appeared. His forecast depends on further advances, including AI that can learn on the job, and on businesses adopting those capabilities.

  • Prepare before disruption

    Martin argues that productivity gains do not guarantee paid work for everyone. He wants policies ready to protect incomes and demand if significant job losses emerge.

Pedro Domingos’s argument

Cheaper intelligence can create more work

  • Tasks are not whole jobs

    Pedro argues that automating parts of a job can make a worker more productive. Human adaptability, relationships and the value people place on human service leave room for work that AI does not replace.

  • Lower costs, new demand

    He argues that cheaper goods and services leave people money to spend elsewhere, creating demand for new products, industries and occupations. Existing jobs at risk are easier to see than jobs that do not yet exist.

  • Capability is not adoption

    Pedro questions whether AI will become sufficiently adaptable within twenty years. He also emphasizes the organizational, economic and social barriers between a technical advance and widespread job replacement.

After the closing statements

The conversation widens to policy preparation, inequality, AI-driven entertainment, social media and collective intelligence. The two also examine where their arguments converge and how uncertain long-range forecasts can be.

Related debate: universal basic income

The speakers

Martin Ford

Futurist and author of Rise of the Robots

Martin Ford writes about artificial intelligence, automation and the future economy. Rise of the Robots won the Financial Times/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award. His books also include Rule of the Robots and Architects of Intelligence.

Meet Martin Ford

Pedro Domingos

Professor Emeritus, University of Washington

Pedro Domingos researches machine learning, data science and knowledge representation. He is the author of The Master Algorithm and 2040, and a recipient of the SIGKDD Innovation Award and IJCAI John McCarthy Award.

Meet Pedro Domingos

Community arguments

Read attributed member contributions and add your own case.

Arguments and research context

Compare both sides, dated forecasts and the evidence behind them.

Debate format

Speaking order and time limits
StageSpeaking orderTime allowed
Opening roundsMartin opens; Pedro questions him. Pedro opens; Martin questions him.5 min per turn
RebuttalsMartin responds, then Pedro.3 min each
Closing statementsMartin closes, then Pedro.3 min each

Speeches may finish early. An informal discussion follows the closings and is not part of the scored debate.

Before the release

When can I watch and score it?

The full video and audience scoring launch here on Monday, October 19, 2026. This is a recorded debate, not a live broadcast. The recording is not available on this page yet.

Do I need an account?

Watching will be free without signing in. A free SuperDebate account is required to submit scores on argument, evidence, clarity and persuasion. One ballot counts per account; updating replaces your previous scores while voting is open.

What does the audience score?

How well Martin and Pedro argue the exact resolution, covering global employment over twenty years. The informal discussion after their closing statements is not scored.

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